source:- smh.com.au
Australia will suffer a population slowdown as the coronavirus crisis discourages women from having children, leading to a slump in the birth rate that will drag down the economy.
New figures show the nation’s fertility rate will fall short of the Morrison government’s ambitious budget forecasts amid an escalating political row over a steep dive in migration during the crisis.
The number of births was already falling in NSW, Victoria and Queensland before the pandemic forced millions of Australians out of work, leading experts to forecast bigger declines in the recession.
Births fell by 2 per cent to 91,376 in NSW, by 0.2 per cent to 79,597 in Victoria and by 0.1 per cent to 62,184 in Queensland last calendar year.
Births rose 0.9 per cent to 33,754 in Western Australia, 4.8 per cent to 5,835 in Tasmania, 1.2 per cent to 19,537 in South Australia, and 2.9 per cent to 6,156 in the Australian Capital Territory.
While some of the falls were marginal and births rose in the smaller states, the national trend means Australia’s total fertility rate will not climb as forecast in the federal budget, forcing a cut to growth.
Australian National University demographer Liz Allen said the pandemic would undermine “couple formation” as restrictions on movement meant people were denied access to the clubs, workplaces and even dating apps to meet partners.
“That means the next wave of children aren’t going to be born or they will be born later,” she said.
“We’re going to see a gravitational wave through our demographic timeline. Couple it in with reduced net overseas migration and this is going to have a long-lasting impact on the budget.”
The government has based its budget assumptions on an increase in the total fertility rate to 1.9 next year, reflecting the average number of live births a woman would have by age 50.
But the rate was only 1.74 in 2018 and the state and territory figures for 2019 show there was no prospect of the rate reaching the official forecast.
Population Minister Alan Tudge told The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald the pandemic would cut the nation’s population growth from its average rate of 1.6 per cent per year over the last decade.
“Next year we will see the population growth rate halve nationally and the slowdown will be even greater in our big capitals of Sydney and Melbourne where the majority of new migrants have settled,” he said.
“It is too early to say what the population growth will be after that as so much will be dependent on whether a vaccine is found.
“I expect the birth rate will decline over the next couple of years as people tend to have fewer children in times of economic uncertainty.”
Mr Tudge acknowledged the falls in migration and birth rate would have a long-term impact on the budget and the economy.
Labor home affairs spokeswoman Kristina Keneally triggered a political storm last week when she told The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald she believed the migrant intake should change to give Australians a “fair go and a first go” at jobs.
Asked to comment on the fertility rate, Senator Keneally’s office said the birth rate and the migration program were two separate issues, but she challenged the government on its forecasts.
“The Morrison government needs to explain why their budget papers have consistently predicted a baby boom when the opposite has been taking place,” she said.
The total fertility rate required for population replacement is considered to be about 2.1 babies per woman, highlighting the need for migration if the birth rate stays low. It has fallen from 2.02 in 2008.
The state and territory figures show a total fall in births registered from 299,572 in 2018 to 298,439 in 2019, but figures for the Northern Territory were not available. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will calculate the total fertility rate for 2019 in December.
PwC chief economist Jeremy Thorpe said the fertility trend raised the question about population growth at a time when migration had fallen steeply.
“In times of economic uncertainty you generally see a dip in fertility,” he said.
Deloitte Access Economics associate director Ellouise Roberts estimated the current total fertility rate to be 1.67 and said an increase had been unlikely even before the pandemic.
“While we’re a fair way off from observing what impact COVID-19 is likely to have on births – expectations are a negative impact – it’s hard to see how the total fertility rate will increase anytime soon,” she said.
“The general consensus is that fertility does fall during a crisis, predominantly due to the underlying uncertainty associated with the event, whether it be safety, health or employment.”
Dr Allen said the budget’s underlying assumptions around fertility were not only at odds with reality but also with the government’s own rhetoric on population growth.
She said the economic dislocation caused by the coronavirus pandemic would weigh on the minds of prospective parents, with many delaying or putting off indefinitely the thought of children.
“You’ve had a lot of people lose their job or hours. There’s an increase in the amount of risk facing people – the fact you can’t even go into a supermarket and be guaranteed you’ll find what you want just adds to the anxiety,” she said.
“That affects people, it affects confidence and that is going to affect whether a couple decides to bring a baby into the world.”